Music

I have been busy since my last post working with Flash for the first time. I now have an alpha version of my new video player. Years ago I enjoyed the custom play list offered by VH1. They have gone through several versions in recent years as they have tried to add advertising. A version over a year ago that lasted only a few weeks was visually stunning, but ran really slow. I now have what VH1 needs. I can rapidly add features and have a complex offering of customized customer views, while not being bogged down by the code. Thus I can quickly keep adding features while not affecting legacy code. They have a rich library of content that I need. I am going to attempt to contact them today.

States as Bad as Countrywide

Yesterday Florida filed a lawsuit against Countrywide for misleading consumers. This is in addition to filings by Illinois and California. Unfortunately for the victims, past lawsuits by states have only been efforts to fill the coffers and ignore the victims. They tend to create new victims, such as the shareholders, which include groups like teachers (retirement investment fund). The only group that will benefits regardless if the states have a valid claim is lawyers. It is too bad victims have lost state governments as a means of justice. In this case the states are protecting the criminals. Some of these loans are for speculative house investments that would benefit if the housing market went up and stick Countrywide and eventually the federal government with losses. Given the states reaction there may be something deeper going on. Are states the real villains and are trying to deflect the focus to Countrywide. Who regulates these loans at the local level and who looked the other way so they could go through?

Autobiography required by Commenters

I noticed that many Google News stories have gone from having hundreds of comments to one or two. I tried to post a comment on two stories today and find out why. The publications wanted me to register and give my life history (ABC News). I think I even have one of the accounts, but it has been so long I do not remember how to login. Though it appears even using that login was going to require several pages of additional detail (ZDnet). Do users not want to give out this information, spend the time involved in filling them out, or can’t remember hundreds of login profiles? So if you want to be at the top of the comment area now is the time, though you might want to find some software to manage the user ids and passwords.

California loves to pollute

The new California green initiative seems to be how much pollution they can add to the earth outside California. Perhaps they also have plans for a giant dome to encompass the state. All indications are this green initiative will reduce the standard of living and increase pollution; nothing for something. Since pollution credits become valuable there is more incentive to use them then not to, even if they are not needed. Corporations will control the pollution from hand outs from their political allies. New companies will have to pay previous monopolies to do business, so new companies that have green technology that produce significantly less pollution will be penalized because they are new. As the credits become valuable it will be cost effective to cash them in and move the polluting activities out of the state. Production of things like electricity requires more energy to transmit over distance. So the farther from the source the more pollution required to produce the original amount. Also standards in some states are not as rigid as California meaning more pollution is allowed for the same process. Any new enterprise that produces carbon byproducts is going to be discouraged from locating in California. More energy related services are going to move out of California requiring more energy to transport them to California. Expanding the transportation system is going to create even more industrial activities adding even more pollution. Running all of this is the government, which has a track record of inefficiency and bureaucracy. By locking in technology and a way of doing things they lock out small business and individuals and the ability to adopt new technologies. Maybe California is so vocal in trying to get other states to adopt this because they know otherwise their wealth, jobs, industry, and workers are going to follow the pollution.

Is the CEO of SAP out of touch?

In an excerpt from a blog printed in the Wall Street Journal yesterday SAP CEO Henning Kagermann sees no threat to current information technology from new online software. However this view is out of date in that the problem with traditional business software is that its strength is also its weakness. Current business enterprise software requires a large investment and is vibrant and balances both a rigid structure with adaptability. This means that for a new technology to compete it must offer a reward in excess of the cost of switching. None of the software on the market offers that. However this new Internet software has led to development of new niche architectures some of which can compete. It is not the content produced by the new offerings, but how it is being produced. In the past it took five or ten years for what is in the lab to make it to the consumer. Current enterprise software faces a major problem in about twenty four months. Perhaps Kagermann does see it coming. SAP works more like a rental store than a retailer. A new architecture means new software and is great for a retailer, like switching from VHS to DVD. But as a rental store SAP must unload their VHS stock. So SAP may be trying to keep the market strong for VHS tapes while internally adjusting to DVD. Google announced this week they are going to offer web statistics. Some think Google acting as both advisor and seller is a conflict of interest. So SAP finds itself in a conflict of interest. Once the new enterprise solutions make it to market the price difference is significant enough to make the old solutions completely obsolete. That window may be months or years, but once it closes it will happen rapidly. Given the statements in the blog maybe the viability of the current information technology is even shorter than it appears.

Greed Killing the Arts

The Columbus Ohio symphony orchestra has closed it doors. The group posted a $1.3 million deficit last year and failed to balance this years budget of $12 million. The board and artist were at an impasse on cuts. Sounds like too many hands in the cookie jar. With 53 full time musicians on the pay roll the questions is where did all the money go. Even if they each earned 100k a year that is only half the budget. Average pay for professionals is less than 50k as any teacher can attest. Even with all the other cost in running a symphony it sounds like they have too much money. In larger cities budgets are considerably larger, but many of them are also living beyond their means. Columbus could revert to volunteers playing in the park to keep the tradition alive. But to have so much money and not be able to make it work.

Government wants to increase regulation on commodities

In response to high commodity prices Congress is working on laws to tighten regulations. They believe prices may be caused by speculation and not demand. This plan has two major flaws. Increases in Tax and regulations generally cause a product price to increase. The second problem is future trading. At one time commodity trading was of physical commodities. If the commodity is apples there are so many apples currently on the market. During growing season there are also apples in the trees. These may or may not make it to market and represent future product. The government allowed trading of these future commodities, but had strict limits. Commodity prices during the 90’s and early 00’s stayed low because the government expanded the years futures can be traded and relaxed the trading rules. Some oil companies found themselves trapped in contract for oil at a much lower price then the market. Courts decided this was not fair, and let the oil companies out of these contracts. The result is oil no longer trading for as many future years, reduced supply, and higher price. For commodities like silver there are now more futures trading than physical silver in the world. So the Democrats face the possibility of creating a commodity crash much like the housing market. Only in this crash prices go both up and down. The value of futures declines while the price of physical commodities skyrocket and are in short supply. This is even more complicated by Berkshire Hathaway. Realizing that silver futures are now unrealistic the company bought a billion dollars in physical silver. The government response is a law that limits the amount of physical commodities that can be traded in a single month. China has a trillion dollars and has used some of that money to buy futures for things such as wheat. China is exempt from the government limits. So they are currently first in line.

2008 not 1934

Our 2007 weather patterns mimicked 1933 with La Nina and record crops in the mid-west. The dry winter did not materialize and we did not see dust storms roll across the mid-west this spring. In fact the wet weather from last year continues, and threatens to reduce crop yields because of too much rain. So the drier year after La Nina may be next year or maybe we just miss it this cycle. What would have happened to corn prices if the weather had actually been bad? A few weeks ago when it roared through five dollars a bushel it seemed high. Yesterday it closed at $7.65.

Same Sex Marriages more Permanent

California began issuing marriage licenses to same sex couples yesterday. The unions may more permanent than the couples realize. Unlike a real marriage these unions will not be able to use traditional divorce proceedings. Some states such as Vermont require the individuals become residents before divorcing. When they do divorce the law in place is for separating a business partnership and thus more complex. Maybe divorces should be that hard to get too?

China Uses Stupid Defense

In response to claims they hacked into congressional computers China responded is there any evidence they have such advanced technology? A lot of spam and hacking originates from Russia. So are they claiming Russians are smarter? A lot of famous hacks were by kids and the real deterrent in the US are harsh criminal prosecution. It has been long known that China illegally duplicates movies and software. They have come up with elaborate ways to acquire some movies even before they are released. Based on the seen side of hacking I would say china is more sophisticated in their hacking. But Russia has them beat for volume of scams and spam.

A Wave of Inflation?

The Wall Street Journal today (June 13, 2008) says that manufacture of heavy and bulky items is returning to the US. The reason is skyrocketing transportation costs. Shipping cost from China to the US has quadrupled since 2000 for a standard shipping container. The cost passed on to products has risen from 3% to 9%. If inflation is confined to fuel prices then this is good news for the job market in the US. However in the 1970’s inflation was not evenly distributed. If this is the case then transportation cost will eventually return to the 3% level. This means a major spike in price. This seems to be confirmed with overseas cost of everything from Starbucks coffee to game boxes. The cost to buy the same product in Europe or Asia is significantly higher than the US. This is blamed on the weak dollar. But eventually overseas prices must come down or prices here go up. Otherwise it will become profitable to take imported goods and export them.

Obama and McCain on Taxes

Yahoo has an article comparing the two candidates on taxes. McCain would cut the income tax rate. This would benefit high-income taxpayers most. Since the middle and upper class pay more in taxes I think that is obvious. Obama would only cut taxes for the low income household, which means a small cut since they pay little in direct income tax. Both want to increase the tax on single adults. Single adults have been lumped with smokers as easy tax targets. If you marry for tax reasons will you go to jail since the IRS considers actions taken primarily to avoid paying taxes illegal? I think it is funny how the Yahoo article glossed over Obama’s massive tax increases. They fail to mention most of them. Obama plans several energy taxes, which the energy companies have already said will be passed onto the consumer. His other business and investment taxes will either be passed on through higher prices or fewer jobs. Both candidates have no plans to reduce government spending. Obama does not discriminate on his tax increases. He is however vocal about his increases for the middle and upper class while careful to hide the ones for the lower income groups. Congress will ultimately decide which taxes pass, but without any pressure to reduce spending someone will be paying for it sooner or latter.

Too Poor for the Economic Stimulus Check

According to the IRS I will not be receiving the Economic Stimulus Check because as a small business owner I did not make enough money in 2007. I would think that would be a good reason to get the check. I would be satisfied to receive back the federal income tax I paid last year. That would be significantly more than the stimulus check. I wonder if internet based businesses will be able to survive inside the US. Not only do I pay a greater percentage of my income in taxes than I did before, but I do not get most of the benefits the taxes are used for. I complain, but I can only imagine how businesses that need a physical location must feel. They get hit with a lot of local taxes that I avoid in not having a physical shop.

Are Air Fares Getting Cheaper?

UAL (United Airlines) announced they are retiring 70 jets because the routes they fly are no longer profitable despite increases in fares. Inflation is a drop in the value of currency. The goods usually cost the same in trade or when using other currencies, though during high inflation not all goods adjust in price at the same rate. Obviously fuel prices have been a leader in the inflation run up. True or not airlines are saying that air fares are not keeping up with inflation. Inflation is mainly caused by extra money printed by the government in substitution of new taxes. With the Iraq, hurricane relief, new social welfare spending, and Home Land Security the government has had plenty of reason to flood the market with dollars. The air lines have been hit with higher fuel prices and new taxes and are not known for good management decisions. The result is a shake up. But are air fares really cheaper when compared to the price of other goods? I checked the price of a flight I have taken several times in the past. The rate has tripled. In the last three years few things I buy have tripled in price. Obviously one route is not a very good analysis of prices. I do believe the airlines claim that fares are a bargain compared to what they will be in the future.

Washing Post Local Site a Flop

In today’s Wall Street Journal (June 4, 2008) the article “Big Daily’s ‘Hyperlocal’ Flop” is about the Washington Post failing with a local news web site. The problem was the logistics of providing it. In this case an outside team with plenty of experience took it on. So software was not at the heart of its failure. They were not allowed to tie into the resources of the larger paper and failed to find out what the viewers wanted. It sounds like the head of the project was given just enough power to go big on the project, but not enough to make it happen. So the project thought they had resources that they did not. And when they finally realized they were smaller scale than the hype of the project, it was too late.

The Coming Management Shakeup

This morning I was reading a series of on-line articles based on the May 5, 2008 Wall Street Journal Article “New Breed of Business Gurus Rises”. In Gary Hamel’s (now considered the most influential person in business) new book "The Future of Management" he says; The need for large, expensive & highly trained information technology departments will have disappeared because reliable, robust & highly configurable solutions will be available via the Internet. I came up with my own comparison last week The companies that make DVD players and disks don’t make the content. But right now IT departments produce the medium and the content. I find his insight amazing. Few large technology companies, other than Google, are concentrating on this type of future. This must really be hard for companies like IBM, as they must continue to supply software to IT departments, who do not plan to give up any power. As I write this I am noticing that the last update from Microsoft broke spell check in Word. Good thing I have access to an on-line Yahoo spell checker. Though Yahoo does not recognize the word Google. So as IT loses power who gains it. Given that corporate level management is already overwhelmed I expect those close to production could see more work headed their way and eventually funding and responsibility. This could be a messy transition. For example I wrote this blog in Word even though I now notice that the Google interface has spell check. I wrote an online database application last year, but not until this Spring did I finally find the functionality superior enough to stop using Microsoft Access. I think IT departments will see early adopters leave quickly and they may be surprised to find they do not have a complete following of late adopters.

Y2K for Gas Pumps

A Wall Street Journal Article says that a company, PMP, is being overwhelmed with business to convert the mechanical dials in old gasoline pumps to allow prices over $4 a gallon. So years ago gasoline pump manufactures did not see it as cost effective to build in that ability. In many ways they were right. Most pumps are now digital. I am reminded of years ago when gasoline prices first breached the dollar mark. Many gasoline stations had to find ways to modify signs that did not go higher than 99 cents. I guess the next problem will be ten dollars a gallon.

Has Vista lost to the Web?

Google thinks so. Google Pushes to Make Browser Applications More Powerful Obviously programs such as Microsoft Office are still much more powerful than anything offered on the web. From a user’s perspective and rival software makers this may sound boastful. But if you look at what is in the pipeline and the closing gap then the day the web becomes the operating system is just a matter of time. There are those that think that the web will hit a wall and has already reach limitation that will prevent it from closing the gap. As an inventor and developer of new technology I am using technology that has already bridged the gap. Architecturally the web has now surpassed the operating system. However two things are holding it back. The internet standards group’s new HTML standard is completely out of sync. Microsoft continues to limit the browser in both functionality and memory. That means functionality that should operate at the machine code level must be run as code. As such it is much slower. One way some companies such as Google are getting around this is to run the functionality on the server. That means you must be on-line to use an application and companies have had trouble convincing customers to pay for the server side service. It will be interesting to see how Google moves server side processing back to the browser. Could we possibly be seeing a Google browser?

What About the Customer?

The last time I flew was on American Airlines and I watched as passengers jostled each other to claim limited over head storage space. Not trusting airline baggage handling many had carried on as much baggage on as they could. Now American is charging for every bag. I can only imagine what the carry on situation looks like now. Why not just charge more for the ticket and eliminate the fees. Maybe part of the problem is the customer. We will shop for the lowest fair and then give in to paying more for hidden fees. But does that make the customer happy? When I collected my luggage after my flight I found out why so many people tried to hand carry their luggage. I had an old Samsonite bag and the top had been ripped off. This was some feat. The bag had a steel band that supported the shell and the handle was also steel. The remains of the handle were still attached and I was amazed to find how well it was constructed. The bag was twenty or thirty years old and the amount of reinforcing and thickness of the steel meant that an incredible force was applied to the bag to damage it like that. I not sure how newer bags are constructed but the handle was way over engineered. Under normal use it would last hundreds of years, well beyond the life expectancy of the cloth cover. I do appreciate that I did get my bag back. The routing tag was attached to the handle. And someone had reattached the tag to the front of the bag. I image my bag disrupted baggage handling as the steel rivets were destroyed. I pointed out the damage to the baggage claims attendant. He actually laughed. Now that I must buy a new bag I am considering garage sales. Despite the damage to the bag the contents were untouched. I know the old bags are rarely stylish, but I doubt any newer bag using plastic instead of steel could have survived American Airlines that day.

Carbon Credit Tax

EU to force US airlines to pay carbon credit tax by 2012. http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/04/post.html European airlines say it is unfair if they are the only ones forced to pay the tax. At least they get to vote or have some say and their citizens use the proceeds. US carriers will find themselves being taxed without representation and with no benefits. Sort of like the British tax on the Americas that led to tea being dumped into Boston harbor.

Teenager Proves Point

Cops bust 'root beer kegger' Teenagers were suspended from sports for pictures of them drinking from red cups, so one teenager staged a keg party at his home, a keg of root beer. They had fun until the police raided the party. Even once the police confirmed it was root beer they continued to test and harass the kids. Here is the quote of the officer from the story; “It was a tremendous waste of time and manpower, but we still had a job to do, and our officers did it," Joling said. "If one kid had come there, even hadn't drank there, but had come there and had been drinking and had left and crashed and burned, then what would the sentiment be? Why didn't the police check everybody out?" School officials and police officers are only human and it is good that the kids protested peacefully. What is funny is that the teenagers and officers both had the same problem. The teenagers thought the red cup pictures were unfair. True they do not represent proof, but the real question is whether the teenagers were drinking in the pictures, which it appears they were. The police quickly realized it was root bear, but continued to treat it otherwise. Both failed to go past rules and make a judgment call. Rules will only take you so far. Otherwise we would only need the Old Testament.

Early 1860 recording found

Before Edison invented sound recording in 1877 a French typesetter recorded his daughter singing in 1860. It is a good example of the difference in marketing and inventing. It is also of interest that a museum had the recording in its archives. The recording was done on a carbon covered piece of paper. A paper record not unlike modern photocopies. 'Magical' song from 1860 knocks Edison off the chart

Ultimate Metal Detector

Metal detectors are like exercise equipment and boats. They sound great at the time but rarely get used. While I have bought neither, I have bought a metal detector, the top of the line at the time. I found some interesting trash including a skeleton key and the tip of a plow. It ultimately ended up in the closet. I came across this detector and found the web site very appealing. http://www.minelab.com/consumer/page.php?section=268#1 Unfortunately these are the same claims I heard fifteen years ago and though I found a nugget by panning I never found one with a detector. It is difficult to describe something technical and keep it interesting and easy to read so I include this link as a good example of a sales pitch.

Massive Ice Shelf Collapse

I find the symmetry amazing. Notice how clean the lines are and how square the blocks. Like how crystals form. National Geographic satellite and a close up from a Sydney newspaper.

Who Pays for Commercial Free

Sony Retracts Bloatware Removal Fee in response to complaints by customers, though only for business customers who buy more than one computer. Sony was charging $49.99 to remove the trial software. This reveals two important things. If you as a customer raise a fuss you will sometimes get your way. Customers do not like advertising, but do not want to pay for the difference.

Dust Bowl

In 1933 a cool and wet summer led to a record harvest of corn. In November of 1933 a series of bad dust storms hit. These winds caused massive dust storms that continued until 1940. The result was a mass migration of people and a disruption in agriculture. What was unusual about 1933 is that the wet and cool weather formed over the Midwest and not the South.

In 2007 we have seen the same weather conditions and another record corn harvest. We have seen a number of wind storms this winter. A couple of trees have fallen in my neighborhood and my backyard is littered with small limbs. It is not unusual to have a front pass through and bring some wind at this time of year. But this year they have been more frequent. The biggest wind storm had only a small amount of dust comparable to the smog on hot summer days. Improvements in crop rotation and ground cover have prevented the wind storm from becoming dust storms.

So it will be interesting to see how 2008 agriculture plays out in the Midwest. The dust bowl has been blamed on farming practices. It appears that it was not an act of God, but an act of man.

Gold

The price of gold stocks plummeted today. One stock I own is down over twenty percent this week. The reason is a smaller than expected interest rate cut by the Fed and rhetoric that the government is concerned with inflation. This caused the largest dollar drop in the price of gold ever. I was reading some of the Wall Street Journals that had piled up. An article from last week said people were selling jewelry since gold had reached $940 an ounce. Now that gold has plunged back to $942 it is cheap. Sure $1030 was really high. But how is the record high price a few days ago now low? What happened to low being is under $400. I guess the same as ever seeing gasoline under $1 a gallon.

How much data is 1 Meg?

I wanted to know how much data you can store in a database if you have 1 Meg of space. I searched the web and found formulas and how to query the database for memory size. No general estimate. So I built a query and sampled about a hundred tables.

The column count and data types are going to change the memory for a row. I took a small table of twenty rows and one hundred columns with a mix of numbers and Varchar. It took 60k of space, which scales up to 333 rows. But 634 rows in the same table took up 912K. So there must be some base memory.

Approximately 700 rows of a 100 column database table is 1 Meg. A table with just a few columns could be over 1000 rows (Microsoft 2005 SQL Server).

Ad Words

Sometimes it can be difficult to find what search words to advertise with. SpyFu allows you to see competitors and the ad words they are using. It also has interesting lists of top web sites.

Inflation Held Steady in February

Inflation Held Steady in February is a top story today. I work out of my home and once a month I trek to the grocery store for my monthly supplies. The only two bills that did not go up in February were phone and rent. I do not heat with electricity and I shut lights off when I leave a room as my parents taught. So a record electric bill for this time of year has me worried about the coming summer. At the grocery store I am a creature of habit. I buy the same things and also use my outing to fill the gas tank. My February bill was higher than January on almost everything. Yesterday was a real shocker. I made my monthly run for March and wow. When did gasoline go over three dollars? The dollars on the pump move like the cents once did. My bill at Sam’s was the largest ever and the largest percent increase. So how did the government come up with their number? They excluded all the things that most Americans use everyday, like electricity, gasoline, and food. Whoops they are right, rent and phone costs did not go up, there is no inflation.

Saving Consumating.com

Consumating originally a dating site that became more like a Myspace.com is shutting down today. I thought about making a bid for it from CNET. Estimates put the user group at 20,000, though some think the active users may be 350. Assume one page view per month per user and multiply that by (0.5/100), which is a conservative click per page view (see previous blog). That comes to a grand total of $75 month ad revenue. Retail for hosting is about $1000 a month. Even if you reduce hosting costs to wholesale and maximize ad clicks five fold you do not break even. Then there is the big cost of a developer. My software for writing software could easily build and support a new Consumating.com, but it lacks a few features. I would have to devote a developer three months to migrating the site and pay something to CNET for their data. The only way to make money is to offer a service. But what service would any of these users want? CNET did not find it and I could not think of anything either.

Carbon credit could be causing global warming

Europe has embraced the trading of carbon credits and the practice is expected to be adopted by other counties such as the United States. It allows government officials to give valuable contracts to pollute to companies they select. When a company does not use all their pollution credits they sell them to a company who can. This assures that all the pollution that the government allows is created. It also allows government officials to give the equivalent of money to companies that support their election. There are many ways to reduce pollution. If fines and regulations are not working how is a system more susceptible to corruption going to work? The same system for carbon credits was applied to tobacco during the depression. It was recently eliminated at great cost and after billions of dollars of subsidies.
Wall Street Journal Carbon Credits
New York Times tobacco subsidies

Is Microsoft .Net better than JBoss SEAM?

Better is subjective and is like the Olympic Pentathlon, where athletes compete in five track and field events. .Net is the Microsoft web development environment and JBoss SEAM is an open-source Java environment. I use another environment which I consider better. One of the most powerful development methods is to use script (JavaScript) and server side processing combined with a generic and powerful server language (C#, ASP, etc.). This is the way Google built Web 2.0 applications until last year. Google abandoned this method and embraced open-source Java. The reason is that writing code is only one event and the above method does not scale well to a large development group. If you have a small development group then you want to win that event. Large development groups must balance events so they win the pentathlon. IT departments see JBoss SEAM as well rounded in promoting standards, communication, and management. .Net programmers are happier programmers (based on blog communities), but Microsoft gave in some on the management and organization to win over developers. So which delivers a better product? I am not sure. IT management and not developers increasingly make the decision on what platform to use. This means platforms like JBoss SEAM are winning adoption. I think that over the next three years that the different aspects of development will become less dependent on each other. Meaning that IT will not need to commit to one platform and instead combine different tools and methods. That means that JBoss SEAM and .Net could both be best.

Barriers to Innovation

I occasionally see articles for which my research offers a solution. For example yesterday Wired has an article about Boeing’s software development for the Future Combat System having problems. They are trying to manage 95 million lines of code. I developed technology to manage such a system automatically. I have only tested it for a few hundred thousand lines but it never hit the wall. It was a design to allow a single developer to manage deploying a repository and managing terabits of information within minutes for a disaster. Because of its design it actually becomes easier to manage as it gets larger and loses the need for any developers. Trying to contact Boeing was like looking at a high security prison. I was directed to the supplier web page where I needed to apply for a DUNS number, which can take thirty days. I gave up after failing to get over the first fence. I imagine they receive as much junk mail every few minutes as I receive in a life time. We live in a brief moment in technology when a small development group can actually develop broad solutions. But unlike blogs, the one percent of viable technologies does not have Adsense to sort them out from the other 99%.

Earthworms

Every time it rains here the earthworms commit mass suicide by wiggling onto the sidewalks and street where they dry out. So I wondered how much the earthworms are worth, apparently about $30 a thousand, retail. Several sites advertise with Google Ads, which is surprising with the high cost of Adsense. This may be because of a higher number of actual customers and the potential for repeat customers. Most earthworms appear to be imported and many parts of the US originally did not have earthworms. It is amazing how the internet has allowed market places for these niche markets.

Top One Percent or Bust

With five billion in ad revenue every three months available to online entrepreneurs it would seem that everyone can make money with a web site. It is the top one percent that makes most of the revenue. They make almost as much as all the sites combined. So if you plan on quitting your job and putting up a web site or writing a blog it better make it to the top one percent.

Facebook can only imagine a CTR of 0.5%.

Several articles such as the one at BizReport say that Facebook has a CTR of 0.04%. Assuming there are five ads, that is 0.25% for a page view. Half of what I predicted for a web site. Reason given for Facebook’s problem is instant messages and an audience that is not interested in other products. I have not used Facebook, but I assume each IM is loading a new ad. So Facebook may actually be close to 0.5% and be diluting the ads by increasing the number of page views. The real problem is that Facebook is losing money and they may already have maximized revenue for text ads.

Generated Ad Revenue Estimate

I searched the internet to find a range I could expect to earn from ads if I created a web site. I did not find much, but given the information I have I can make a guess. I ran ads in January 2008 using Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft so I know the CTR for a particular set of ads. So what do I mean by a web site? I had an idea last summer to put up a web site about web worms. There was a large infestation in my neighborhood, and I saw a little bit of buzz online, but no good source of information about them. They could eat a leaf pretty fast and a video could have been interesting. I thought such a web site could generate about 11,000 hits over three months. So how much would I make for the two days to build such a site? Web Marketing Today has a guess from 1999. For 28,572 impressions they estimate you will make $1,000. So if we have about three ads that sounds good. Unfortunately a CTR of $35 is unrealistic unless you are Google search. Webmaster has a blog that suggest taking average click payout and multiplying it by 2% to 5%. Then I realized I have another piece of information, this blog. It has a click rate of about 0.5%. So 0.5% of 11,000 equals 55. If Google pays $.50 for each click that is a grand total of $27.50. If somehow through ad placement, buzz, and a really great site it does somehow achieve 2% then we make $110. Junk mail has a success rate of about 1%, which is another piece of information to confirm this estimate. Anyone with a blog or web site please post a comment if this percentage is close to your ad click compared to views.

Microsoft is the center of time

For that matter Google is too. Microsoft is offering a developers webcast and posted the time in PST. For years television has used ET. For those of us not in ET this familiarity has made it easy to convert it in our heads. Other information such as stocks also uses Eastern Time. For those of us not in Eastern Time we would all like to see our time be the time. England claimed that distinction over a century ago with GMT. It is a globally recognized time that pilots and trains use so that as they cross over time zones their schedules are not confused. So how many hours behind is the West Coast from the East Coast. Are all companies going to start doing this? What time zones is China in?

Another HTML bug in IE

I have been impressed that bugs that I find in Yahoo are generally fixed in a few weeks. Bugs in Microsoft products can remain for years unless they become a major security threat. In fact some developers depend on bugs not being fixed in implementing strange code fixes. I wonder if we can expect an end to fixes if Yahoo merges with Microsoft? I was going to describe the HTML bug here, but after giving it some thought I realized it possibly is a major security threat. I also think it may be on purpose to stop a different security threat. There is a major memory leak, which has me removing this HTML tag from all my code. So I should be busy today.

What is going on with IE Favorites?

I like to use favorites to mark the addresses to web sites I regularly view. A week ago a strange thing started. The favorites in the folders are arranging themselves alphabetically. At first I thought I had accidentally pressed some short cut. Now it is happening in other folders. Did Microsoft have an update recently? (yes) Since I have been using these links for years they are like phone numbers you can dial but not recite out loud. Now I can not find anything. I would put the lists back in order, but how long before Microsoft reset my hard work? I looked it up and there is a sort when you right click using the file menu. I don’t use the file menu to open favorites so I have never seen this option. I put my favorites in folders and put the ones I use the most at the top. Now every time I add a favorite it is like getting a new phone number for every number I call.

To send or not send

The FBI has issued a warning for an email virus disguised as a valentine ecard. Yahoo apparently did not get the warning. There banner today is Send a Valentine's Day eCard, Whoops.

News before the News

Esther Dyson offered an opinion column in the Wall Street Journal answering my question of who the start-ups and outsourcing companies may be turning to for online ads. I doubt she read my blog and she is a much better writer. But I think she still fails to find the companies I was referring to. These companies, mostly in India and China, were veracious users of online ads in 2005 for products under $500. Perhaps the ability to reach users at a reasonable cost for small niche players was just a temporary fluke.

Wal-Mart did sell the Dr. Pepper to me at the sale price, but not the twelve packs. I feel the fact the product was no longer in the system at any price was the main reason. I do not feel resolved or satisfied. It has made me think about my own business strategy. Maybe the small things can mean more than the big things. Price was not the concern. I was concerned that someone would go take the signs down, for the benefit of the other customers and I received a yes, we are sorry.

Wal-Mart forgets to rollup prices

I went shopping at Wal-Mart Marketplace for cleaning supplies this week. I noticed that sodas were on sale and grabbed a 12 pack and a two liter bottle. When I tried self check out the 12 pack rang up at twice the price listed and the two liters Dr. Pepper said item not found. Since the sodas were from a display next to checkout I looked over and indeed they were a rollback. So I move over to a checker, since nobody was manning the self checkout. The sale had ended the previous day and all the sale items in the store were no longer on sale. I suggested that they send someone around to pull the signs. The checker said someone was working on that. I suggested that maybe they were a little understaffed. She said, “no, we can only do one thing at a time.” So I guess at 5pm it is normal to still have the rollback prices from a sale that ended the previous day. I wonder if the new sale items rang at the new price. The inability for the computer to find Dr. Pepper makes me wonder. I worked at a grocery store as a teenager. I thought back to who made sure the signs were pulled and new ones put up. That would be the manager. I looked around and the two checkers seemed to be on their own, even when they had problems, which both did. It was fairly busy and self check was the only way the store was dealing with it. So unless you have time, you pay whatever they want.

Who is the next Google?

Microsoft announced today it is buying Yahoo. Both of these companies are Google’s biggest ad competitors. But neither has challenged Google’s price increase and this buy out indicates we will not see it in the future. In 2005 many start-ups and out sourcing firms in India used Google ads as their primary source of customers. The average cost that I determined from researching 100 companies in 2005 was $25-50 a customer. All those ads are now gone. I assumed it was Google’s new method of not showing an ad every time. Buying some online ads revealed the real cause. The cost of running the same ad as in 2005 and getting the same response rate is now $1500 per customer.

Google explained why they dumped these customers. The profit margin is low. They can make more profit with less effort by only supporting the top customers. Google was right. They have continued to grow their profit and companies that could have stepped in and paid the higher prices. Companies like Wal-Mart have shown that a market exists in selling volume at a lower profit margin. Who is the company that is going to offer a competitively priced advertising at a lower profit margin? It may not even be the same service. Does anyone know who is becoming the Wal-Mart of advertising?

Wiki

The Wikipedia has an interesting new addition Input Web Wizard. The new Web 2.0 starts here.

Could screen makers be the next hot investment?

The Wall Street Journal has an article today saying there is a shortage of screens. Every thing from remote controls to phones are getting mini screens. Part of the drive is to create spaces for ads. This has strained the supply of screens smaller than 10 inches. Could this lead to a big run up in the stocks of these companies?

Some say 41% flat tax too low.

Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee is proposing a flat tax that some say is unrealistic because it is too low to replace income tax. The suggested flat rate is 23% on the purchase of all goods and services. Small businesses which make up the majority of jobs (other than government) would pay 23% on their service or goods and 23% when their owners spend the earnings. Since the second 23% is not on the total amount it works out to 41%. Local sales tax could add another 8% on each side. I worked for a major company for years doing software development and data processing. I now do that through a web business to individual customers. I pay 6.6% sales tax (Texas) and several hundred for local and federal small business permits. I then pay what everyone else pays on the earnings plus a little extra without a company match on Medicare. But unfortunately I do not get many of the benefits, such as health insurance, unemployment benefits, or disability coverage. I then pay another 8.25% sales tax on most things I purchase. When companies outsource to India, or do data processing in-house, they do not pay sales tax or these business fees for the developers. If that rate goes to 23%+6.6%=29.6% I doubt that very few US companies could compete with foreign technology companies. Since these are internal business processes taxing foreign companies would not work either. The entire process could move overseas. I don’t know how a 41%+6.6%+8.25% = 55.85% tax is low. But since I now pay as much as 78% tax 6.6%+8.25%+28%+1%+20%+12%+4.25%+3%+3%+2% (does not add up to 78% because some taxes such as 4.25% franchise tax is not on total income) on my income I guess it is. What about just half. I vote for a flat 50% tax only on what I spend and not on what I make.