Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Are Millions of Home Lots Worthless?

There has been a wealth of articles about the housing slump. A three part series by Reggie Middleton is the best I have read so far.

Straight Talk From the Homebuilder CFO: The Coming Land Recession, Pt I
Straight Talk From the Homebuilder CFO: The Coming Land Recession, Pt II
Straight Talk From the Homebuilder CFO: How independent are the independent auditors?

If he is correct then home builders abandoned reason and locked themselves into millions of home lots. With the down turn they now hold home lots worth less than the equity. Meaning to sell them they must pay money. In past downturns it has been ten or more years before the housing market recovered. Neither home builders nor banks are in a good position to wait it out. The last major housing slump in the 1980’s claimed several Savings and Loans and some home lots sold for little more than their tax liability. Those that bought and waited did well. The 1980s showed that buyers need not be in a rush and to expect real estate investments to be money pits for years. This downturn may have one additional bottom. Local and state governments spend much more now. In states such as Michigan that have already seen a downturn, instead of cutting spending they raised taxes.

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