Look Outside

Hurricane Dean a Category 5 storm, threatens Mexico My previous post pointed out the low probability the National Weather Service gave Dean sustaining category 5 winds (15%). Was there really not much of a chance or did they have no idea? I am reminded of the stock market. Because the weather forecasts are always adjusting it may not be obvious how wrong they are as a whole. Then again I look at their chart and they just lowered the chances (10%). Hurricane DEAN Am I reading the chart wrong or is the article wrong? Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory says it is a strong category four. Is the chart maker not communicating with the advisor writer? If the hurricane is already a four shouldn’t the probability of it being a category four or five in the next 24 hours be 100%? Then again a category ranking may be entirely different than sustained winds. How many times do we look at data in a chart and think we know what we are seeing but really don’t?